Longview Media

Replacement of Chen Yuan is likely a key signal of chinas leaderships intent on cleaning up excessive credit growth. The CDB sits at the heart of the lending to and the growth of the LGFVs - ie at the heart of the creation of its credit bubble

An interesting development on what is arguably the most important issue facing global markets in coming years - i.e. is Chinese growth driven by too much urbanization, funded by too much debt? (NB Chinese credit intensity of GDP has been trending at around 2 - 4x these past 4-5 years - a level similar to other economies pre their credit bust).

This is a figure we've been searching for for a while and is a key component for understanding the Chinese growth and credit bubble story:

While cycles shouldn't be stuck to rigidly when investing they do give very good signposts and frameworks for thinking about current policy debates (& current investing environments). David's work on the life cycles of Empires, in that respect, is fascinating.