Financial Times 6th March 2017


If mortgage finance is a whole percentage point cheaper now than it was then, it is not surprising that the stock market can keep growing (and that the housing market can stage a recovery). That leads to a question: Can we time a speculative top? It is very difficult, and very dangerous, to time a market that you think is in a bubble. But it can also be dangerous not to make the attempt. This chart was produced by Chris Watling of London’s Longview Economics, and shows the current “final flurry” as he calls it, compared to similar rallies at the end of the S&P’s last three rallies